Flake's Take

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Y2K1 Will Be OK

It was a time of fear, consternation, and anxiety for the world as the transition from the 20th to the 21st century was taking place.

It was anticipated that at the advent of Y2K there would be blackouts, computer outages, food shortages, and chaos as businesses tried to adapt to the changes required to make the adjustment from 1999 to 2000.

Well, Y2K has ended, and the doomsayers and naysayers have all been proven wrong.

Not only did the world survive, but it did so with minimum stress on the business, personal, political, and other fronts.

Some have suggested that the whole Y2K episode was nothing more than a hoax designed to benefit and create profits for certain industries. A cynic would probably accept this thesis, but in reality there was a genuine sense that something drastic would happen.

My final sermon of 1999 was entitled "Y2K Will Be Okay." As an optimist who is grounded in faith, it was a treatise expressing hope in the face of fear.

Indeed, I was convinced that if the centuries had successfully rolled over 19 times before, then the 20th time would be no different. Overall, the year 2000 was a good year.

However, with a change in the presidency, new tensions and a leadership crisis in the Middle East, and the opening day of the New Year being a disaster on Wall Street, the year 2001 is beginning with great cause for concern.

Yet there is still reason for great hope for a prosperous New Year.

Now that the Florida crisis has ended, George W. Bush will be inaugurated on Jan. 21, 2001. There are many pros and cons about the role of the Supreme Court, the fairness of the Electoral College, its priority over the popular vote won by Vice President Al Gore, and the actual electoral process and its varying equipment usages and interpretations.

Nevertheless, when all is said and done, the system worked. America and the world were exposed to one of the greatest civics lessons on the virtues of democratic government in the history of the United States.

The executive, judicial, and legislative branches of government were on display in ways that history books could not possibly have presented them.

Although the stock market has started the New Year on a low point, it will, as always, recover over time. There is still a great deal of fall-out from the disastrous downturn in E-commerce and dot-com businesses.

There are also adjustments because of the lower-than-expected results in the sales projections of retailers last quarter. In spite of all of the sales discounts, most retailers will not show a profit.

The market will probably reverse itself because the Bush Administration has assembled a team that is comprised of conservative business-friendly persons who symbolize the stability that the market needs.

Two factors that may determine the financial strength of the nation going forward into the New Year are the resolution of the Microsoft case and the Federal Reserve position on raising, lowering, or holding interest rates.

The Microsoft antitrust suit has had a great deal of impact on the market. The initial skid in the E-commerce sector can be traced to some degree to the Justice Department’s decision to go forward with the case.

Many expect the Justice Department under George W. Bush to be more accommodating to the Microsoft position.

Although the Justice Department will probably not drop the case, a negotiated settlement would bring closure, and the market will respond accordingly.

The real key to the economy is in the powerful hands of Alan Greenspan and the Federal Reserve. The Clinton Administration leaves a legacy of prosperity, but there are signs of recession according to some analysts. Only time will tell in which direction Alan Greenspan will go.

In the final analysis, just as Y2K was okay, Y2K1 will also be okay.

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