ELECTION TIME: Yup! Welcome to Queens where the incumbent always wins. No, it’s not the law — although we know several who would like it to be. It’s just the way it is.

Sure, we could go back a couple of decades and cite the inspired campaign that enabled Nettie Mayersohn (27th AD) to topple Don Manes’ incumbent in a Dem Primary. Then, of course, there is a seesaw seat that has gone back and forth between the parties, presently occupied by Ann-Margaret Carrozza (26th AD). And, every 10 years, redistricting changes the lines and invites upsets. Old-timers will recall the Nydia Velazquez Congressional triumph over Steve Solarz in the then newly-drawn Hispanic 12th CD.

But back to the point: it just doesn’t normally happen. Incumbents don’t lose!

In this year’s elections, Queens County has 30 governmental, elected positions up for grabs — seven Congressional, seven State Senators, 16 Assemblymembers. Of 30 incumbents, 29 are seeking re-election.

CONGRESS: The seven Congressional seats (Gary Ackerman 5th, Greg Meeks 6th, Joe Crowley 7th, Anthony Weiner 9th, Nydia Velazquez 12th, Carolyn Maloney 14th and Nita Lowey 18th) will all remain Democratic. None of these seats, in their present configuration, have been occupied by a Republican. It’s just never going to happen unless lines change, populations change or catastrophe strikes. So the only way to beat an incumbent is in a September Dem Primary.

We’ve reported that Joe Crowley will be challenged by Councilman Walter McCaffrey. However, unless McCaffrey, a shrewd political operative in his own right, has performed fundraising miracles, we expect to see him outgunned and outspent by incumbent Crowley backed by the Queens Dem organization. That is, unless McCaffrey decides he’s better off squirreling away the money raised, not running and waiting for another day — like Borough Prez in 2001.

Likewise, Brooklyn’s Anthony Weiner faces a primary challenge from Councilman Noach Dear. Dear previously lost this seat to a novice Weiner in a four-way race. Weiner has done a more than credible job of establishing himself and making friends. There is little reason to expect any surprises here.

Look for all Queens Congressional members to be back in DC in January.

STATE SENATE: Queens has five Dems (Malcolm Smith 10th, Ada Smith 12th, Dan Hevesi 13th, George Onorato 14th, Toby Stavisky 16th) and two Republicans (Frank Padavan 11th, Serph Maltese 15th).

Malcolm Smith, the State’s newest Senator, would be the candidate most likely to be tested. Former Assemblywoman Cynthia Jenkins, who may have recognition in her old smaller Assembly district, will likely challenge Smith but will be overwhelmed and outspent in the Senate District. The GOP has crossed endorsed Smith’s candidacy — so much for the two party system.

Ada (the other Smith with the same press release) may also receive a challenge but rumors of Lawrence McClean’s viable candidacy are likely exaggerated.

Expect GOP Chair Maltese to receive his courtesy free ride, while Republican Frank Padavan will face an aggressive challenge from Rory Lancman. But the Albany and Queens County Dems are unlikely to invest any resources against Padavan who consistently proves he owns his district.

The Repubs to date have only been able to find one candidate – Katina Kiourkenidis of Astoria – to stand up and lose to the Dem incumbents.

The State Senate? You can expect to see seven out of seven back next year.

ASSEMBLY: Denis Butler (36th AD, Astoria), the dean of the Queens Delegation, has announced his retirement. As reported last week, Mike Giannaris received the Dem designation in this overwhelming Dem district. Fellow Greek and three-time candidate Kimon Thermos has also announced for the seat. However, the Queens Dem Party has often managed to persuade candidates out of races to avoid primaries. If Thermos does make this race, it will be fun to watch an experienced and seasoned Thermos against a well-oiled Dem machine backed by some big bucks.

As discussed previously, Cathy Nolan will face a Primary challenge from former ADA Patrick O’Malley. Nolan, the incumbent, was denied the Dem endorsement as a result of her support of McCaffrey over Crowley. However, the recent and tenuous peace between Dem Leader Manton and Assembly Speaker Sheldon Silver has – to some degree – neutralized the Queens organization’s involvement. Although O’Malley promises an aggressive door-to-door campaign, Silver will make sure Nolan has the money and know-how to prevail.

In the seesaw seat (26th) we referred to earlier, which has been held by former Assemblyman Republican Doug Prescott on three different occasions, look for Ann Carrozza to have a free ride. The most likely swing seat in the Assembly does not even have a GOP candidate, as of this writing.

The Queens GOP has so far named only six candidates for the 16 seats. They are: Anthony Stasi 23rd, Phillip Sica 24th, Michael Roemmelt 28th, Robert Hutchins 33rd, Rafael Merino 34th, Alice Lemos 37th.

The incumbents are: Audrey Pheffer 23rd, Mark Weprin 24th, Brian McLaughlin 25th, Carrozza 26th, Nettie Mayersohn 27th, Mike Cohen 28th, William Scarborough 28th, Marge Markey 30th, Pauline Cummings 31st, Vivian Cook 32nd, Barbara Clark 33rd, Ivan Lafayette 34th, Jeff Aubry 35th, Nolan 37th, Anthony Seminerio 38th.

There is always the possibility that another candidate will make the ballot and we shall report that to you.

Another candidate winning?

C’mon, this is Queens. Incumbents win.

WANNA BET? Mike Giannaris (who we’ve never met) plus 29 of 30 incumbents plus will be the winners in November!

Liz Goff contributed to this column

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