A Simple Pre-Election Day Wrap Up:
Ho Hum, Incumbents Win!

It’s election time.

And I’m not excited.

Sorry, but one of my passions — politics — is losing it’s pizzazz.

It’s not me. It’s “them”… and “the system.”

Now don’t get me wrong. The system is still as good — if not better — than any other to flourish in modern history. And the “them” — the politicians — they’re not all that bad; there is just not enough of them up to the standards I set. That, too, is a product of the system.

On an entry level, opportunities for the bright, creative, independent, passionate (need more positive adjectives?) just rarely, if ever, exist. Blessings like term limits (and I still have never advocated them — just backed the law after the people passed it by referendum) whereby a number of newcomers can enter the system and have some impact just don’t happen often enough. We’re almost always stuck with the same old politicos who get fatter, more content, lazier and closer to the big money interests as their terms add up. And the unlevel playing field, which is money driven, enables them to win term after term after term.

When there is an opening, slick maneuvers, ballot access, legal wherewithal, political experience and existing networks, often play into the hands of party organizations.

Therefore, frequently, to make it through the system as a candidate you have to pledge fidelity to the party organization. Now, that alone is not so bad. But when party bosses fill most (or almost all) positions because those bosses play the system so effectively, the creative governing process is often stifled.

On the highest levels of government — at all levels — party bosses have frequently been unable to “control” the selection process. Mike Bloomberg, Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, Rudy Giuliani (see, not all my favorites) managed to achieve the highest level of political electoral achievement and yet were not mired in the confining political obligations that haunted other administrations. They had their own problems. Party bosses and obligations were not prevalent.

However, even in the independent administration of prosecutor Rudy,  we’ve seen the son of Liberal Party chief Ray Harding playing fast and loose with City money. Would young Harding have ever gotten so far in the Rudy administration if his father did not deliver the Liberal Party line to enable Rudy’s election? No, we’re not condemning Rudy for the Harding fiasco, we’re pointing out the corruptibility of an administration that should have been close to legal purity.

The reason: party politics.

God, the Independence Party is mired in the same type of nonsense. Pataki people register phantoms. The City Independence Party is hi-jacked by Marxists. All of these curious actions because the team that can deliver the winning votes gets the access. That access often comes with the ability to influence big money decisions.

Money, therefore, is aplenty to achieve the electoral edge.

And sadly, the influence it buys is often too close to the ability to corrupt.

Election Day, Next Week

Which brings us to the present election, this coming week.

In spite of my cynicism, you gotta vote. Your participation, in the long run, can make a difference — it could take time.

Let me wrap the election up quickly where possible.

In a year where redistricting should create some serious challengers, sorry, the weight of incumbency and the party politics of the Albany gang that redrew the lines means incumbents are not going to lose.

What follows are merely Schenkler pre-election projections, but you can take them to the bank.

Congress: the six present members (Ackerman, Meeks, Crowley, Weiner, Velasquez, Maloney) will all win both primaries (if they have one) and the general election by landslides. The campaign war chests between incumbents and challengers are so disparate that until meaningful public financing is instituted, incumbents will only be removed from Congress by death or indictment — and that’s a nationwide plague.

Assembly: same story as Congress. Only, there are two new seats and one fledgling up for re-election.

The Flushing seat (22nd AD) drawn for an Asian, will likely go to the organization’s guy — non-Asian Barry Grodenchik — since the Asian community will be split among several candidates (Ethel Chen, Jimmy Meng, John Albert). However, this race can be viewed as competitive — merely because there is no ingrained incumbent.

Likewise, watch the 39th AD, where three talented Latinos face off to become the borough’s first Latino member of the Assembly in a race sans incumbent. In the best race to watch in Queens, the organization’s choice, Jose Peralta, will be given the run of his life by Francisco Moya, a bright, talented and reasonably well-funded candidate. William Salgado also offers a viable option. This real race exists only because there is no incumbent.

There is one other Assembly race worth watching (31st AD) where Michelle Titus has only been the incumbent for a couple of months, taking over in a Special Election after the death of Pauline Cummings. She has neither the funding nor the organization to run like an incumbent. However, in a field of four competent challengers, the vote will likely be split allowing Titus two more years to gain control of the process. All of her opponents: Taj Rajkumer (a well funded college professor), Charles Pringle (a former Bronx ADA), Brian Block (a longtime party regular) and Henrietta Fullard (a socially conscious reverend/educator), bring much to the table. Any one of them might have bested the little-known incumbent. Sadly, with four in the game, none will.

Senate: In all but two seats, it’s the same old story — incumbents will breeze back into office.

In the much publicized 16th Senate District, incumbent Toby Stavisky is challenged by longtime office holder Julia Harrison, who comes to the process with many of the perks of incumbency — Harrison has been a District Leader and elected official for many more years than Stavisky. Stavisky will outspend the challenger by what looks like six or seven to one and remain an untouchable incumbent.

In the one vacant seat (13th), presumably drawn for a Latino, Charles Castro and Nestor Diaz will split their ethnic advantage and probably allow former Councilman, organization choice John Sabini, to win. This is one of the races to watch.

NYS Elections

Statewide, the Democratic effort has been disappointing and lackluster. The lessons of Mark Green’s loss after misplaying the race card against Freddy Ferrer has kept the more aggressive Andrew Cuomo’s hands tied. Afraid to assault Carl McCall for fear of winning the Primary but alienating the Democratic African American vote vitally needed to challenge George Pataki in November we witnessed a half-backed Cuomo effort. McCall, by virtue of longtime service and being the first black to achieve Statewide office, seems to be in a position of having “earned the right” to be the candidate. Walking away from a primary with a victory lacking in dynamics and vision is no way to beat a popular Governor.

Now Cuomo “drops out” in support of McCall. Has the latest razamataz changed the campaign dynamics? We have Andy Cuomo cutting some “backroom” deal with Carl McCall to drop out of the race that he already lost, all in the interest of party “unity.” Sorry guys, it won’t play well in Podunk, much less in New York.

George Pataki’s toughest race might just be the well-funded Primary for the Independence Party line against Party godfather multi mega-millionaire Tom Golisano. Golisano’s bucks and Pataki campaign’s registration faux pas make the Independence Party Primary competitive — watch it. Should the Guv win it, with his campaign bucks, he waltz’s home in November; otherwise, it’s likely a fox-trot.

Money, again, seems to be the difference for Lieutenant Governor. Dennis Mehiel, who was no one not so long ago, seems to have purchased the right to the second slot with Carl McCall over longtime public servant African American Charlie King. We met King four years ago and were impressed with him then. However, Charlie is not independently wealthy and doesn’t offer McCall the much-needed racial balance, so the party regulars look to Mehiel to help fund their effort. Ain’t democracy wonderful?

Queens boy Alan Hevesi has run another lackluster campaign, but seems to be in a position to win the primary over impressive but lesser known Bill Mulrow. Mulrow may have come upon the electoral scene with some oomph, but not enough to overtake the frontrunner. An experienced and polished Republican John Faso will test Hevesi again in November. That will be the best race, then.

The moral of the story is not very exciting.

Our system grinds, it doesn’t jump — except in extreme times. This is not one of those. Expect all incumbents to return to office. Expect business as usual. Expect politics and money to walk along hand-in-hand.

Also expect the good people of our City, of our State and nation to keep reading and thinking. They’ll listen to the candidates. They’ll study the issues. They’ll vote with their mind and heart and not based on the endorsements of parties or politicians. They’ll give the little guy (read: under-funded) a chance; they’ll vote in term limits, if necessary. They’ll demand campaign finance reform. It’ll take time. But there will be change.

You gotta start somewhere: read, think, vote!

Not4Publication.com by Dom Nunziato

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Michael Schenkler can be reached at: MSchenkler@queenspress.com